Since I've started reading the TA book for the futures market, I've been introd to various Technical analysis tools, in fact there are so many. The book does explain what each one does, how its derived.
SO since April 15th, I've been using Moving Average Crossover as a tool to monitor prices. I am basically looking out for the Slower Moving Average to cross the Faster Moving Average. Its an indication of the turning of the trend, though there could be 'false' signals given.
Then reading the Zhen Yuan Cang's book, I've added Relative Strength Index aka RSI as another tool to check for OverSold, OverBought market situations, cos if oversold, it means prices low enough, go in to buy, overbought, means prices way too high, prices might fall. Err lemme go review how this index is derived....
The equation, RSI = 100 - [100 / (1 + RS)], where RS = Average of x day's up closes / Average of x day's down closes. The RS is a comparison of average to derive a ratio, eg >1, 1, <1 but with the equation, the RSI becomes smoothed within the boundaries of 0 to 100. Then its an Oscillator. Basically an Oscillator is a type of TA tool that plots the price movements into a range of 0 to 100. The prices move within this range. Imagine Secondary school days of the percentile 0 to 100%.
The interpretation is as follows. If prices are now in the 70th percentile range, its an Overbought situation. Room for fall. If prices are in the 30th percentile range, its an oversold situation, room for rise.
Again as with all tools, its not 100% guaranteed able to predict the future, alot of it is reading it right, getting a better picture from all the signals given from the tools. If more tools are giving the same signal, can make a better judgement. Something like that.
The best thing is that in Poems, most of the TA tools are there. With just a click of the mouse, I can see the MA, RSI, ROC and numerous others. Its the range to set and the interpretation that's the art.
I feel like a gypsy reading the future from my crystal ball at times.
______________________________________
For this week and coming weekend, I better put in much more effort to read up, remember the Wave theory. It is quite complex, with things like basic pattern, wave personalitites, wave extensions, failures, corrective waves, Rule of Alternation, channeling etc etc. Its a huge thing, quite complex as it combines all three aspects of pattern, ratio and time.
Lemme start with the basics first... I have finished reading the TA book but still the stuff about the wave theory doesnt stick well, as its rather complex. I shall go relook over it again.
______________________________________
Stock prices are still nowhere near my target levels, so now is the time to practice Patience to wait for the right price to enter. This is the test of an investor versus a punter. I am a bit anxious that I am only left with 1 counter for the SG cash portfolio and am eager to build it back. Cos the longer at the sideline meant little transaction. BUT adopting a longer term view of things, PATIENCE and REFRAIN are still the key. Nevermind I cant make gains for the next few months, but overall still gain. Hmm... worth reminding myself.
No comments:
Post a Comment